Короткий опис (реферат):
Objective: to develop a prognostic model of the postoperative
adhesive intestinal obstruction risk in children by the use of
multivariate statistics.
Materials and methods: To create a model for the prediction
of the postoperative adhesive intestinal obstruction by using the
method of binary logistic regression, a retrospective analysis of
the features of the acute inflammatory disease of the abdominal
cavity organs and treatment strategy in 119 children.
Results: The level of significance of clinical and anamnestic
signs in children with appendicular peritonitis and the
postoperative adhesive intestinal obstruction was determined
using Pearson’s test χ2. The main factors (leukopenia at
hospitalization) (p=0.033) pronounced stigmatization with signs
of connective tissue dysplasia (p=0.013) and duration of surgery
(p=0.0002) were highlighted, which indicate the postoperative
adhesive intestinal obstruction risk. The logistic regression
method was used to create a prognostic model for calculating
the postoperative adhesive intestinal obstruction risk, which
was assessed as “very good” by ROC analysis (test sensitivity –
77%; specificity – 72%): AUC = 0.796.
Conclusions: The application of the proposed prognostic
model of the postoperative adhesive intestinal obstruction risk
in children with acute inflammatory diseases of the abdominal
organs allows to make decision as for the extent of surgery and
optimization of treatment strategy at all stages of rendering care.
